1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	292489	The Rival Networks	Current	186	7.06	5.65	2.25
			Estimated	300	7.21	5.74	2.40

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
The Rival Networks is a standalone two-player version of The Networks. Much of the original's gameplay is preserved, but streamlined so that it plays in 30-45 minutes. You and your opponent each have a display of 3 Timeslots, and at the start of the game, they show your starting 3 (terrible) Shows. There is also a Goal Card showing for the current Season, with 3 Goals available to hit (like winning a particular Timeslot, or having more Stars on your Shows than your opponent). On your turn, you will pick one new Show from a display of 3, and use it to replace one of your existing Shows, which moves to your Reruns. You'll score Ratings Points for the new Show, scoring higher ratings if you put the show in its correct timeslot. Next, you select one Star and one Ad from their corresponding display. Stars and Ads are displayed as pairs, so when you take one, you must take its matching pair. These go into your Green Room. Then, you may attach as many Stars as you want onto a single Show (usually the Show you got this turn, but not always), as long as the Star has an icon matching the Genre of the Show. Stars add to your Show's Ratings. You'll track Ratings for each of the three Timeslots independently. There are various points on each Ratings track with Viewer icons (usually between 3-5 Ratings Points). Every time you pass one of these Viewer icons, you'll score a Viewer by placing a chip into your secret bank. Ads are worth money depending on various situations - usually whether you're leading at a given Timeslot. You'll pay the Ads in order to buy Network Cards (which are now marked with costs). Network Cards are one-time use power cards, similar to the Network Cards in the original game. If you ever get at least 3 Shows of the same Genre between your Lineup and your Reruns, you'll score a Genre Bonus. Genre Bonuses are different for each Genre, but usually get you Stars or Ratings Points. The deck of Shows has one Genre of each Show per Season. Once these are all out, you'll see an "End of Season" card. A player may take this card on their turn to trigger the end of the Season when their turn is over. They won't get a Show, but they'll still get a full turn otherwise (taking a Star and an Ad, placing Stars on Shows, and buying Network Cards with Ads). At the end of a Season, the player leading in more Timeslots scores 1 Viewer for each Timeslot they're leading in; the other player draws 1 random Star. Then you'll look at the current season's Goals. The winner of each Goal gets Viewers or Stars depending on the goal. The game ends after 3 Seasons. The player with more cards in their Green Room scores 1 Viewer. Then, the player with the most Viewers wins.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/292489

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to The Rival Networks? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Rival Networks. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Rival Networks. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	292489	The Rival Networks	1.00	5.65	7.06	2.40	186
1	2017	232481	Zooloretto Duell	0.97	5.58	6.40	2.00	171
2	2018	232824	Caper	0.92	6.04	7.14	2.12	900
3	2016	205308	Jolly & Roger	0.92	5.74	6.78	1.69	417
4	2015	161719	Rise of Cthulhu	0.91	5.58	6.53	1.67	190
5	2015	174078	Holmes: Sherlock & Mycroft	0.91	6.25	6.82	1.81	2,422
6	2020	293678	Stellar	0.91	6.11	7.45	2.20	828
7	2016	200834	Sola Fide: The Reformation	0.91	5.71	6.43	2.00	520
8	2020	274072	Omen: Heir to the Dunes	0.90	5.58	7.17		81
9	1997	263	Manitou	0.87	5.61	6.11	1.97	380
10	2016	178336	World's Fair 1893	0.87	6.61	7.18	2.00	3,542
11	2016	177248	Saga of the Northmen	0.87	5.63	7.28	2.42	155
12	2015	173346	7 Wonders Duel	0.87	7.98	8.11	2.22	73,405
13	2015	187420	Quissama	0.86	5.55	7.25	2.64	79
14	2019	286001	Dwar7s Duel	0.86	5.50	5.59		132
15	2018	257440	Dungeon Duel	0.85	5.52	7.21	2.33	32
16	2016	193486	Neolithic	0.85	5.75	7.10	2.08	336
17	2003	5795	Richelieu	0.85	5.90	6.58	1.91	1,060
18	2015	219122	National Economy	0.84	5.60	6.77	2.40	161
19	2012	122298	Morels	0.84	6.69	6.99	1.74	7,978
20	2009	54043	Jaipur	0.84	7.39	7.50	1.48	42,805
21	2009	46255	Campaign Manager 2008	0.84	6.19	6.65	2.21	2,655
22	2019	286171	Gates of Delirium	0.84	5.64	7.05	2.00	190
23	2017	224153	Cartouche Dynasties	0.84	5.53	7.33	2.00	30
24	2011	94104	Omen: A Reign of War	0.84	6.36	7.34	2.34	1,584
25	2019	232956	Omen: Fires in the East	0.84	5.59	7.41		85

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to The Rival Networks while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	292489	The Rival Networks	5.65	1.00	5.65	7.06	2.40	186
1	2015	173346	7 Wonders Duel	6.91	0.87	7.98	8.11	2.22	73,405
2	2009	54043	Jaipur	6.19	0.84	7.39	7.50	1.48	42,805
3	2016	178336	World's Fair 1893	5.74	0.87	6.61	7.18	2.00	3,542
4	2015	174078	Holmes: Sherlock & Mycroft	5.69	0.91	6.25	6.82	1.81	2,422
5	2012	122298	Morels	5.61	0.84	6.69	6.99	1.74	7,978
6	2020	293678	Stellar	5.55	0.91	6.11	7.45	2.20	828
7	2018	232824	Caper	5.55	0.92	6.04	7.14	2.12	900
8	2013	158600	Hanamikoji	5.54	0.76	7.27	7.52	1.72	13,826
9	2017	232481	Zooloretto Duell	5.43	0.97	5.58	6.40	2.00	171
10	2019	264241	Mandala	5.35	0.77	6.97	7.63	1.80	3,992
11	2011	94104	Omen: A Reign of War	5.32	0.84	6.36	7.34	2.34	1,584
12	2016	205308	Jolly & Roger	5.27	0.92	5.74	6.78	1.69	417
13	2009	46255	Campaign Manager 2008	5.19	0.84	6.19	6.65	2.21	2,655
14	2016	195544	Tides of Madness	5.18	0.81	6.38	6.81	1.53	3,708
15	2016	200834	Sola Fide: The Reformation	5.17	0.91	5.71	6.43	2.00	520
16	2015	175293	Trambahn	5.16	0.82	6.28	6.95	1.83	2,052
17	2015	176229	Tides of Time	5.11	0.80	6.40	6.63	1.57	7,072
18	2015	161719	Rise of Cthulhu	5.10	0.91	5.58	6.53	1.67	190
19	2018	246200	Piepmatz	5.05	0.80	6.33	7.12	2.08	1,871
20	2003	5795	Richelieu	5.00	0.85	5.90	6.58	1.91	1,060
21	2020	274072	Omen: Heir to the Dunes	4.99	0.90	5.58	7.17		81
22	2017	230080	Majesty: For the Realm	4.99	0.75	6.60	6.97	1.73	5,742
23	2018	248005	Ganymede	4.95	0.80	6.19	7.23	2.30	1,264
24	2010	72991	Asara	4.92	0.77	6.42	7.00	2.35	2,746
25	1997	263	Manitou	4.89	0.87	5.61	6.11	1.97	380

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	292489	The Rival Networks	Formal Ferret Games	Gil Hova	Heiko Günther	Card Game	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Area Majority / Influence
					Travis Kinchy	Economic	Game: The Networks	Open Drafting
						Movies / TV / Radio theme	Players: Two Player Only Games	Set Collection
							Theme: Television (TV) Industry
							Versions & Editions: Two-Player Versions of More-Player Games

Individual Game Analysis